Breakingviews - Post Roe-leak, it's not the economy, stupid - Reuters

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A woman pushes a stroller in front of the United States Supreme Court in Washington, U.S., May 17, 2021.

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WASHINGTON, May 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If the economy were what drove election results, the Republican party would be in a good place when America next goes to the polls in November. But the leak of a Supreme Court draft opinion, in which justices argue for striking down the constitutional right to abortion enshrined in the 1973 Roe v. Wade case, has changed the dynamic.

Biden’s economic record has been a gift to opponents of his governing Democratic Party. Inflation is the biggest mark against him. The consumer price index rose 8.5% in the year through March, according to the Labor Department, which was gleefully dubbed “Bidenflation” by several Republican candidates out to gain or retain seats in Congress in November. Even higher-income individuals who make at least $100,000 a year say surging prices read more will force them to rethink financial decisions, according to a CNBC/Momentive survey in April.

In his first year the sitting president has also failed to deliver on campaign promises, like hitting the rich. As well as failing to increase taxes on the wealthy and for corporations, he has even dropped low-hanging fruit, like scrapping the “carried interest” loophole that lowers private equity executives’ tax bills. Plans to help the middle class, such as childcare assistance, have fallen by the wayside too.

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It's a truism dating back to the 1990s that “the economy, stupid” is what drives voters. But Monday’s leak from the Supreme Court has shifted the conversation to a topic where economic factors hold little sway on opinions. A Reuters/Ipsos poll later in the week found that even 49% of Republicans were more likely to support candidates who support abortion rights. About 62% of voters who live in suburbs disapprove Biden’s handling of the economy, but almost as many also think abortion should be legal, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll in April.

Social issues have created electoral surprises before. In 2004’s close presidential race, Republicans got a boost after 11 states drummed up ballot initiatives banning same-sex marriage, bringing out extra conservative voters in battlegrounds like Ohio. This year, again, social issues are likely to introduce a wild card. The economy still matters, but a little less than it did a week ago.

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(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

CONTEXT NEWS

- U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts on May 5 said the leak of a draft opinion that favored striking down the constitutional right to abortion was “absolutely appalling." The rare disclosure occurred on May 2.

- A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on the following day found that 63% of voters, including 49% of Republicans, said they were more likely to support candidates who support abortion rights in the Nov. 8 midterm elections, when roughly one-third of Senate seats and all of the seats in the House of Representatives will be up for grabs.

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Editing by John Foley, Sharon Lam and Pranav Kiran

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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