Russian President Vladimir Putin’s operational pause has more to do with the effectiveness of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, than resting his troops. They don’t have a counter. The battlefield is no longer entirely tilted in Russia’s favor.
Surprise is bad in combat. Putin and his generals were led to believe the much-vaunted Russian S-400 air defense system would provide sufficient protection against HIMARS. It has proven ineffective, and heads will likely roll within the Russian defense industry.
The positive truth: HIMARS is becoming the game-changer everyone anticipated. With eight systems there and four more in route, Putin’s ground forces, and his aspirations to destroy Ukraine, are in jeopardy. Command centers, artillery and air defense systems, ammunition and fuel depots, warehouses and the soldiers manning them have all fallen victim to HIMARS. Without command and control, artillery, and the logistics trains to supply them, the Russian advance in the Donbas and the south will grind to a halt. Immobility will result in their destruction. The mobility of the HIMARS platform and the range of its munitions, 80 kilometers, make it a formidable foe.
A recent explosion in Nova Kakhovka, located in the Kherson region, was attributed to a HIMARS strike against a Russian ammunition warehouse, killing an estimated 52 Russian soldiers. That same strike also killed the chief of staff for the 22nd Army Corps, Maj. Gen. Artem Nasbulin. As many as 20 warehouses storing Russian artillery and ammunition have been struck by HIMARS. At the same time, drones and shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles continue their reign of terror against Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers.
HIMARS will likely play a prominent role in any Ukrainian counteroffensive. Of course, by virtue of its effectiveness, HIMARS has become the No. 1 target on the battlefield for the Russian military. It is what is known in military parlance as a "high payoff target." That is to say, a target that will significantly support Russian interests if it is destroyed. Russian forces are thus dedicating major intelligence-gathering capabilities to locate and destroy the HIMARS. Their propaganda machine is already spinning out disinformation, claiming to have destroyed two systems in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine repudiates the claim.
HIMARS has changed how this war will be fought — Russian attrition has given way to Western precision. Ukraine must protect this asset while at the same time continue to target Russian artillery and their ammunition depots aggressively. It’s a fine line. But while 12 systems have already proven their worth, more is better.
Still, Putin is worried. He should be.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
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