IBM Smart Lineup Decisions for NFL Week 3 - ESPN

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  Kyle SoppeESPN

Fantasy football is an emotional game and that's a large part in why we love it. But "love" isn't the only emotion that comes with this game ... the flip side is just as strong of an emotion.

What if I told you that it was possible to take the emotion out of the decision making while retaining the sheer joy that comes with watching the games every week?

That's where IBM Insights comes in, as they use Watson AI to break down all of the content you're consuming and then some. And by "some", I mean every inch of the interwebs. Below are the highlights for NFL Week 3 - good and bad. Now all you have to do is avoid the bust players and watch the points pile up!

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Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans

Big Ben is off to a nice start, but he is relying more on his pass catchers than in years prior and that can lead to weekly fluctuations in fantasy value. Roethlisberger average depth of throw through two weeks is down over 24% from his rate over the decade prior.

Looking to make a trade but not sure where to start? New in the ESPN App, the Trade Assistant is a matchmaking tool which assesses your team needs and depth versus every other team in your league and suggests trades for fantasy managers to either propose or dismiss.

Most common player in trades: Michael Thomas (204,477 offers)
It's a long season and Thomas will be back. An early (Week 6) bye should help ensure full health for the second half of the fantasy season and don't forget ... the Saints still have a pair of meetings with the Falcons and home games against the Chiefs and Vikings during the fantasy playoffs.

Most traded running back: Jonathan Taylor (8,953 accepted deals)
Taylor ranked fifth in the NFL last week in percentage of team touches (47.5%) and that's unlikely to change. There's always concern about the sustainability of a rookie, but this profiles as the perfect setup for a mega-talent. Make sure you're the one trading for Taylor, not the one sending him away.

Most successfully traded player (among top 100 in offers): Deshaun Watson (8.8%)
Watson is QB15 through two weeks and with a tough Steelers matchup this week, it seems that panic is setting in. Relax. He has a pair of get-right spots in Week 4 (vs. MIN) and Week 5 (vs. JAX), not to mention he has fantasy championship MVP potential when he hosts the Bengals in Week 16.

Most declined player in trades (among top 100 in offers): Christian McCaffrey (96.6%)
Low-ball offers aren't going to work, but the success rate on these deals over the next few weeks figures to rise. A return during a long week of practice entering Week 9 makes sense and a late bye (Week 13) in addition to another Buccaneers matchup in Week 10 means there is a good chance that CMC is not RB1 when it matters most. Don't settle, but you'd be wise to consider all offers.

Trade Assistant with IBM Watson brought to you in partnership with ESPN

Watson's Insight: Roethlisberger is projected as a top-10 quarterback this week, but in his range of outcomes is a 9.9-point floor. The average floor of the other nine signal callers: 13.9 points.

Running Back

David Johnson, Houston Texas at Pittsburgh Steelers

Johnson was RB47 last week and faces a tough Steel Curtain this week, but the game script should lend more of a hand this week than it has in the first two for the former fantasy star. The Texans have trailed by at least seven points for 74.8% of their offensive snaps, the third highest rate in the league, but the betting line for Sunday has been swinging in the favor of the road team and now sits at Pittsburgh -4. Houston needs this game and the longer it stays tight, the more Johnson's fantasy floor rises.

Watson's Insight: Across all positions, no one has a great difference when comparing their boom to their bust potential than Johnson (19 percentage points).

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys

The man, the myth, the muscle ranks as the seventh best receiver in fantasy through two weeks (38.7 points), but there are 25 receivers with more targets than Seattle's budding star. In fact, he is not one of the 62 receivers with an end zone target, which is a bit of a concern given that he led the league in such looks a season ago.

Watson's Insight: Among our top-50 projected players for Week 3, Metcalf's 19.5% bust chance heads the list.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears

Remember 12 months ago when the fantasy world was going ga-ga over Austin Hooper as an elite tight end? Well, let's check the tale of the tape through two weeks: 2019 Hooper vs 2020 Hurst ...

2 Related

Hooper: 69 routes, 15 targets, 111 receiving yards and 0 drops

Hurst: 74 routes, 14 targets, 110 receiving yards and 0 drops

Watson's Insight: Among TEs projected for at least 10 points this week, Hurst's ceiling-over-expectation percentage of 41% leads the way.

Insights by IBM Watson brought to you in partnership with ESPN

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