Fantasy football is an emotional game, and that's a large part of why we love it. But love isn't the only emotion that comes with this game. The flip side is just as strong of an emotion.
What if I told you that it was possible to take the emotion out of the decision-making process while retaining the sheer joy that comes with watching the games every week?
That's where IBM Insights comes in. It uses Watson AI to break down all of the content you're consuming and then some. And by "some," I mean every inch of the interwebs. Below are the highlights for Week 1 -- good and bad. All you have to do now is avoid the bust players and watch the boom points pile up!
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Mighty Mustache from Mississippi is available in more than 80% of ESPN leagues, and he profiles as the type who could be the most-added player when waivers run on Tuesday. Minshew threw 6.4% of his passes to the end zone last season, a rate that was above league average and hints at tremendous fantasy upside when you consider that the Colts allowed a score on 48.7% of end zone throws (third-highest rate) last season.
Watson's insight: Minshew owns the second-biggest gap between boom and bust potential at the position this week (10.8 percentage points)
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Allen was taken in fantasy drafts as a fringe top-10 quarterback this summer, but he's very much an iffy play in this divisional spot. The Bills are working in new pieces on the offensive side of the ball, and Allen underwhelmed in this spot in 2019. To kick off last season, Allen averaged 10.6 yards per completion and 3.8 yards per rush against the Jets, down from his rates of 11.5 and 4.8, respectively, over the next four months.
Watson's insight: Allen's bust percentage is 7.5 percentage points higher than his boom chance, the fourth-biggest difference of Week 1.
Running back
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Akers fits the physical profile of another former Florida State back who has endeared himself to the fantasy masses: Dalvin Cook. And he carries scoring upside against a Cowboys team that allowed the sixth-most red zone drives in 2019.
Watson's insight: Even without having any live NFL snaps to react to, Watson gives Akers a higher ceiling projection (15.0 points) than other flex options like Devin Singletary (14.8) and Raheem Mostert (13.5), whom we've seen play.
Mark Ingram II, Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Ingram has rushed for multiple scores in his first game in each of the past two seasons, and he picked up 91 yards (with a touchdown) on his 10 touches against these Browns last December. That said, he didn't see more than 15 carries in 10 straight games to end the regular season, though he did run hot in the receiving department, doubling his career receiving score total in 2019 alone.
Watson's insight: No running back saw his bust potential increase more throughout the second half of this week than Ingram, whose odds of disappointing more than doubled and now sit at 17.7%.
Wide receiver
Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Miller was undrafted in the majority of ESPN leagues despite ranking as WR9 during a key part of the fantasy schedule last season (Weeks 12-15). Three of Mitchell Trubisky's top 10 career games have come against the Lions, a defense that lost Darius Slay this offseason.
Watson's insight: Miller's 24.3-point ceiling jumps off the screen this week, ranking ahead of receivers like Stefon Diggs and TY Hilton, who are locked into far more starting lineups.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Lazard recorded a catch on 12.6% of his routes last season, a rate that not only figures to improve but ranked in the same neighborhood as assumed fantasy starters like Michael Gallup, Calvin Ridley and DK Metcalf last season.
Watson's insight: Lazard's ceiling this week is 12.6 points above his ESPN projection, the 11th-biggest upside at the position this week.
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September 11, 2020 at 10:06PM
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IBM Smart Lineup Decisions for Week 1 - ESPN
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