0 of 8
Starting pitcher Kevin Brown made history at the 1998 winter meetings, becoming the first player in MLB to sign a $100 million contract when he inked a seven-year, $105 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
In the years since, players salaries have exploded, and there have been 90 more contracts of $100 million or more, according to Baseball Prospectus.
That number will continue to grow this offseason, with Trevor Bauer, George Springer and J.T. Realmuto potential candidates for nine-figure paydays.
Will that be money well spent?
We crunched the numbers to figure out how may $100 million free-agency deals have actually been worth it, based on production, health and postseason success.
The first step was to remove contract extensions, players who opted out of pacts before they were finished and contracts that are not more than halfway finished and therefore too soon to be called.
Let's get to it!
Note: Data for WAR-per-season figures can be found in this Google Sheets document.
1 of 8
- Mike Trout, LAA—12 years, $426.5 million
- Mookie Betts, LAD—12 years, $365 million
- Giancarlo Stanton, MIA—13 years, $325 million
- Nolan Arenado, COL—8 years, $260 million
- Miguel Cabrera, DET—8 years, $248 million
- Joey Votto, CIN—10 years, $225 million
- Clayton Kershaw, LAD—7 years, $215 million
- Christian Yelich, MIL—9 years, $215 million
- Derek Jeter, NYY—10 years, $189 million
- Joe Mauer, MIN—8 years, $184 million
- Justin Verlander, DET—7 years, $180 million
- Felix Hernandez, SEA—7 years, $175 million
- Stephen Strasburg, WAS—7 years, $175 million
- Buster Posey, SF—9 years, $167 million
- Jose Altuve, HOU—7 years, $163.5 million
- Matt Kemp, LAD—8 years, $160 million
- Troy Tulowitzki, COL—10 years, $157.8 million
- Adrian Gonzalez, BOS—7 years, $154 million
- Miguel Cabrera, DET—8 years, $152.3 million
- Chris Sale, BOS—5 years, $145 million
- Mike Trout, LAA—6 years, $144.5 million
- Cole Hamels, PHI—6 years, $144 million
- Todd Helton, COL—9 years, $141.5 million
- David Wright, NYM—8 years, $138 million
- Jacob deGrom, NYM—5 years, $137.5 million
- Johan Santana, NYM—6 years, $137.5 million
- Freddie Freeman, ATL—8 years, $135 million
- Paul Goldschmidt, STL—5 years, $130 million
- Matt Cain, SF—6 years, $127.5 million
- Vernon Wells, TOR—7 years, $126 million
- Ryan Howard, PHI—5 years, $125 million
- CC Sabathia, NYY—5 years, $122 million
- Xander Bogaerts, BOS—6 years, $120 million
- Elvis Andrus, TEX—8 years, $120 million
- Ken Griffey Jr., CIN—9 years, $116.5 million
- Dustin Pedroia, BOS—8 years, $110 million
- Charlie Blackmon, COL—6 years, $108 million
- Justin Upton, LAA—5 years, $106 million
- Ryan Braun, MIL—5 years, $105 million
- Homer Bailey, CIN—6 years, $105 million
- Alex Bregman, HOU—5 years, $100 million
- Ryan Zimmerman, WAS—6 years, $100 million
- Evan Longoria, TB—6 years, $100 million
- Albert Pujols, STL—7 years, $100 million
- Kyle Seager, SEA—7 years, $100 million
- Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL—8 years, $100 million
First things first. We needed to weed out the contract extensions since the focus here was on the success rate of $100 million free-agency deals.
The following 46 contracts were extensions:
That left us with 45 free-agency contracts to analyze, but there was a bit more trimming to be done before we started.
2 of 8
- Rodriguez spent three seasons with the Texas Rangers before he was traded to the New York Yankees. He opted out and became a free agent following the 2007 season, signing a 10-year, $275 million deal with the Yanks. He averaged 8.1 WAR and won three American League MVP Awards during the first seven years of this contract.
- Facing an opt-out decision, Sabathia instead replaced the final four years and $92 million of his contract with a five-year, $122 million extension.
- Greinke left $71 million on the table when he opted out of his deal after three years. That proved to be the right move financially, as he signed a six-year, $206.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Similar to Sabathia, Upton replaced the final four years and $88.5 million of his contract with a five-year, $106 million extension in exchange for waiving his opt-out clause.
The following players opted out of their contracts or reworked them before they were complete:
Alex Rodriguez, TEX—10 years, $252 million (opted out after seven years)
CC Sabathia, NYY—7 years, $161 million (opted out after three years)
Zack Greinke, LAD—6 years, $147 million (opted out after three years)
Justin Upton, DET—6 years, $132.8 million (opted out after two years)
With four more contracts eliminated, we were down to 41, but there was more trimming to do.
3 of 8
- Bryce Harper, PHI—13 years, $330 million (11 years remaining)
- Gerrit Cole, NYY—9 years, $324 million (eight years remaining)
- Manny Machado, SD—10 years, $300 million (eight years remaining)
- Anthony Rendon, LAA—7 years, $245 million (six years remaining)
- Stephen Strasburg, WAS—7 years, $245 million (six years remaining)
- Eric Hosmer, SD—8 years, $144 million (five years remaining)
- Patrick Corbin, WAS—6 years, $140 million (four years remaining)
- Yu Darvish, CHC—6 years, $126 million (three years remaining)
- Zack Wheeler, PHI—5 years, $118 million (four years remaining)
These players have not yet passed the midway points of their lucrative contracts, so it seemed unfair to make rulings on the success or failure of the deals.
None of these contracts are unmitigated disasters, especially after Hosmer put together his best season in a San Diego Padres uniform in 2020.
However, age is going to catch up with a lot of these players on the back ends of their contracts.
With these nine eliminated from the conversation, we were left with 32 free-agency contracts to dissect for this exercise.
4 of 8
- Chris Davis, BAL—7 years, $161 million (-0.6 WAR per season)
- Jordan Zimmermann, DET—5 years, $110 million (0.2 WAR per season)
- Mike Hampton, COL—8 years, $121 million (0.4 WAR per season)
- Carl Crawford, BOS—7 years, $142 million (0.5 WAR per season)
- Josh Hamilton, LAA—5 years, $125 million (0.6 WAR per season)
- Yoenis Cespedes, NYM—4 years, $110 million (0.7 WAR per season)
- Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY—7 years, $153 million (1.4 WAR per season)
- Jose Reyes, MIA—6 years, $106 million (1.7 WAR per season)
It doesn't take a second to call these contracts absolute disasters:
The Baltimore Orioles still owe Chris Davis another $46 million over two years, and all signs point to his deal getting worse before it gets better after he hit .169 with a 50 OPS+ over the last three seasons.
Jordan Zimmermann (514.1 IP, 5.63 ERA, 80 ERA+) and Mike Hampton (891.1 IP, 4.81 ERA, 96 ERA+) missed time with injuries and were generally ineffective over the lives of their contracts.
Speedsters Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury were sapped of their elite athleticism by nagging injuries shortly after signing their contracts, while Jose Reyes never came close to matching the success he had with the New York Mets during his time with the Miami Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays.
Josh Hamilton played 240 games in an Angels uniform before he was traded to the Rangers, who took on a mere $6 million of his remaining salary. He was released less than four years into the contract, and he played his final MLB game Oct. 14, 2015.
The New York Mets had a chance to cut ties with Yoenis Cespedes when he opted out of the final two seasons of a three-year, $75 million contract following the 2016 season. Instead, they re-signed him at an even higher annual salary. He played only 127 games in four years.
5 of 8
- Barry Zito, SF—7 years, $126 million (0.3 WAR per season)
- Prince Fielder, DET—9 years, $214 million (0.8 WAR per season)
- Alfonso Soriano, CHC—8 years, $136 million (1.1 WAR per season)
- Shin-Soo Choo, TEX—7 years, $130 million (1.2 WAR per season)
- Jayson Werth, WAS—7 years, $126 million (1.3 WAR per season)
- Carlos Lee, HOU—6 years, $100 million (1.4 WAR per season)
- Albert Pujols, LAA—10 years, $240 million (1.6 WAR per season)
- Jason Heyward, CHC—8 years, $184 million (1.7 WAR per season)
- Johnny Cueto, SF—6 years, $130 million (1.8 WAR per season)
- Alex Rodriguez, NYY—10 years, $275 million (2.3 WAR per season)
- Robinson Cano, SEA—10 years, $240 million (3.5 WAR per season)
These contracts had some positive moments, but the players did not live up to their lofty salaries:
Future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols posted a 123 OPS+ while averaging 29 home runs and 98 RBI in the first five years of his contract. If the Angels had won a title, it would have been money well spent. Instead, they have made the postseason just once in nine years, and Pujols is now a shell of the player he was.
Set to serve his second PED suspension, and part of a trade that has a chance to turn into one of the most lopsided deals in recent memory, Robinson Cano belongs in this category despite solid production.
Alex Rodriguez posted a 137 OPS+ while averaging 32 home runs, 109 RBI and 5.0 WAR over the first three seasons of his second contract with the Yankees. However, things went south quickly and he posted just 8.0 WAR the rest of the way amid injuries and a PED suspension.
Injuries derailed the careers of Prince Fielder and Johnny Cueto after strong starts to their contracts. Fielder suffered a career-ending neck injury in 2016, while Cueto made just 13 starts in 2018 and 2019.
Barry Zito averaged 163 innings per season in his seven years with the San Francisco Giants, and he played a part in the team's 2012 World Series title, but his 4.62 ERA and 87 ERA+ over the life of the deal didn't live up to what was the largest contract ever given to a left-handed pitcher.
Jason Heyward is in a similar position with three years left on his contract. He played a key role for the 2016 World Series winner, and he remains a stellar defender in right field, but he has not played as hoped.
Alfonso Soriano, Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Lee and Jayson Werth made four All-Star appearances in 28 years worth of contracts, producing but failing to live up to their salaries.
6 of 8
- Cliff Lee, PHI—5 years, $120 million (4.0 WAR per season)
- Kevin Brown, LAD—7 years, $105 million (3.3 WAR per season)
- J.D. Martinez, BOS—5 years, $110 million (3.1 WAR per season)
- Masahiro Tanaka, NYY—7 years, $155 million (2.5 WAR per season)
- Mark Teixeira, NYY—8 years, $180 million (2.4 WAR per season)
- David Price, BOS—7 years, $217 million (2.1 WAR per season)
Whether it was because of injuries or something else, these players didn't quite qualify as full-blown success stories, but they were more good than bad:
When healthy, Kevin Brown and Cliff Lee pitched up to the lofty expectations that came with their deals. Brown had three elite-level seasons and two years that were cut short, while Lee posted a 2.89 ERA and 133 ERA+ in three-and-a-half seasons before elbow issues ended his career.
David Price helped the Boston Red Sox win the World Series with a stellar 2018 postseason, and he logged a 3.84 ERA and 118 ERA+ in four seasons before he was traded to the Dodgers in February's Mookie Betts blockbuster.
Slugger J.D. Martinez was also an important member of that Red Sox team, hitting .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs and 130 RBI to finish fourth in AL MVP voting. He followed that up with another strong season in 2019 before struggling this year, but he's already earned his spot in this group.
Masahiro Tanaka had some ups and downs, including a partially torn UCL, but he wrapped up his seven-year contract with a 3.74 ERA and 114 ERA+ in 1,054.1 innings. He added a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 10 postseason starts. All things considered, it was money well spent by the Yankees.
First baseman Mark Teixeira was healthy in the first three years of his contract, posting a 129 OPS+ while averaging 37 home runs and 114 RBI and winning the World Series in 2009. However, he averaged just 98 games over the final five years of his deal.
7 of 8
- Max Scherzer, WAS—7 years, $210 million (7.3 WAR per season)
- Manny Ramirez, BOS—8 years, $160 million (4.6 WAR per season)
- Carlos Beltran, NYM—7 years, $119 million (4.6 WAR per season)
- Zack Greinke, ARI—6 years, $206.5 million (3.6 WAR per season)
- Jason Giambi, NYY—7 years, $120 million (3.1 WAR per season)
- Matt Holliday, STL—7 years, $120 million (3.0 WAR per season)
- Jon Lester, CHC—6 years, $155 million (2.2 WAR per season)
This is the cream of the crop as far as $100 million free-agency deals are concerned. Teams wouldn't think twice about handing out these megadeals again:
The contract Max Scherzer signed with the Washington Nationals prior to the 2015 season has a chance to go down alongside Greg Maddux to the Atlanta Braves, Barry Bonds to the San Francisco Giants and some of the other all-time great free-agency deals.
He's won two National League Cy Young Awards, finished in the top five in the voting three other times and helped lead the Nats to their first World Series title in 2019.
Also worth mentioning on the list of all-time great free-agent signings is Manny Ramirez. He piled up 291 home runs and 921 RBI in eight seasons, helping the Red Sox to five postseason appearances and two World Series titles while hitting .321/.422/.558 with 11 home runs and 38 RBI in 43 playoff games.
The addition of left-hander Jon Lester helped the Chicago Cubs transition from rebuilder to contender, and he was the ace of the staff during their World Series run in 2016. Simply put, the Cubs wouldn't have won without him. That makes his decline over the past two seasons well worth what he provided over the first four years of the contract.
Jason Giambi missed significant time in two of his seven seasons with the Bronx Bombers but hit .269/.415/.546 while averaging 37 home runs and 105 RBI in the other five years. He also had a .919 OPS in 127 postseason plate appearances.
Carlos Beltran ranks seventh in Mets history with 31.1 WAR. He made five All-Star teams, slugged 149 home runs and stole 100 bases before he was flipped to the Giants for a young Zack Wheeler.
Matt Holliday came to the St. Louis Cardinals as a rental at the 2009 trade deadline and then re-upped on a seven-year deal after testing free agency. He posted a 136 OPS+ while averaging 20 home runs and 80 RBI as a rock-steady contributor, and the Cards won the 2011 World Series.
Finally, we come to Zack Greinke, who has one year left on his then-record $206.5 million deal. With a 3.42 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 18.2 WAR over the first five seasons, he has been one of baseball's elite starters even though he celebrated his 37th birthday in October.
8 of 8
- Resounding Successes: 7/32 (21.9%)
- Not Bad, but Not Resounding Successes: 6/32 (18.8%)
- Overall Positive: 13/32 (40.6%)
- Not Good, but Not Absolute Disasters: 11/32 (34.4%)
- Absolute Disasters: 8/32 (25.0%)
- Overall Negative: 19/32 (59.4%)
So what's the conclusion?
History shows that $100 million free-agency contracts are a mixed bag, with more bad than good:
It's interesting that more pitchers fell into the positive categories (seven) than the negative categories (four), and the early returns on Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin, Zack Wheeler and Yu Darvish could tip the scales even further in the that direction.
However, the overall numbers support the idea that $100 million contracts carry more risk than reward, with injuries and late-career declines diminishing players' values over the life of long-term deals.
Buyer beware when it comes to Trevor Bauer, George Springer and J.T. Realmuto this offseason.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.
"smart" - Google News
December 17, 2020 at 07:00PM
https://ift.tt/3r4zY0j
Is It Smart for MLB Teams to Give $100 Million Contracts to Free Agents? - Bleacher Report
"smart" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2P2kUhG
https://ift.tt/3febf3M
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Is It Smart for MLB Teams to Give $100 Million Contracts to Free Agents? - Bleacher Report"
Post a Comment