In the days preceding the opening of the 2020-21 NBA season, we've seen a bevy of rookie contract extensions as teams are lining up to secure their young building blocks ahead of a suddenly barren 2021 market that could overly inflate their values as restricted free agents.
One big name that didn't sign an extension: Lonzo Ball.
And it was a smart move.
As Ball watched his fellow 2017 draftees secure their financial futures, he decided to bet on himself, that this season he will, at least, back up the significant 3-point shooting improvement we saw from him last season (pre-bubble). If he does just that, he'll likely get a deal for north of $80 million next summer.
If, on top of that, Ball becomes an even halfway viable scorer inside the 3-point arc, where at present he's an infrequent finisher at the rim and a nearly nonexistent threat in the paint with floaters and/or push shots, it's not out of the question that he could command something closer to $100 million.
Though no negotiation numbers were reported, we can be certain the Pelicans weren't offering Ball that kind of money. They simply haven't seen enough to commit long term. As it pertains to Ball's aforementioned 3-point shooting improvements, the "pre-bubble" distinction is more central than it should be to this discussion.
Last season, Ball shot 38 percent from beyond the arc, per Cleaning the Glass. In the bubble, he shot 28 percent from downtown and 30 percent overall, averaging just seven points as the Pelicans, who were just under minus-8 points per 100 possessions with Ball on the floor in Orlando, flamed out of playoff contention. Ball was flat out bad in the bubble.
But here's the thing: We're talking about seven games in an entirely foreign environment after a nearly five-month layoff. Should we really be putting all that much stock in that kind of sample? With a lot of players, those seven games wouldn't matter. They would be wiped from the record. Even Steph Curry has bad seven-game shooting stretches; .300 hitters go into slumps all the time.
But Ball doesn't have that kind of leeway. Through the first two years of his career, Ball earned a reputation as an inconsistent hesitant shooter, his funky mechanics exacerbating a growing pessimism around his game. He changed those mechanics, and the numbers came up considerably, but first impressions die hard, and one bad bubble run brought the skepticism back to the forefront.
Had Ball been willing to take a low-ball offer in the interest of securing his financial future in uncertain economic times, the Pelicans likely would've been happy to sign him to an extension; at the very least, he would've become a highly trade-able asset on a team-friendly deal. It's a risk to not take that security. Ball could get hurt. He could have a terrible shooting year.
On the other hand, the 2021 market has become so bare in the wake of all these extensions -- both rookie and max -- that barring a catastrophic injury, Ball is likely going to get at least a $50-60 million deal simply for lack of options. Markelle Fultz just got $50 million over three years, and you want to talk about shooting skepticism?
Ball, like Fultz, has been positioned in such negative light because of his shooting that we have, in my opinion, lost track of all the other things he does well. Ball is a long, athletic, instinctive defender. He's a terrific passer equally versed in highlight-reel lobs and simple passes that keep the ball moving. He's supremely fast with the ball and pushes pace as well as anyone in the league.
And I think the shooting is real. Prior to last season, whenever Ball shot well it was almost always off the dribble. He was a non-option, for all intents and purposes, off the catch, which was one of the main reasons why he was a terrible fit with LeBron James, who is going to control the ball and traditionally prefers guys who can spot up to space the floor and cash in off his creation. in 2018-19, Ball shot an appalling 26 percent, with under a 40 percent adjusted percentage, in catch-and-shoot situations, per Synergy. When he was unguarded, he shot 19 percent.
Nineteen. Percent.
But last year he became a more-than-viable shooter off the catch, clocking a 59.8 percent adjusted field goal percentage, per Synergy, in catch-and-shoot situations. That number rose to 64.8 percent when unguarded, meaning you can't just leave him alone. Both of those marks ranked in the 75th percentile or better league-wide.
Being a legit off-ball threat is what takes Ball's game, and value, to another level. He's not an aggressive or versatile enough scorer to represent a high-end pick-and-roll threat, especially with his continued issues pulling up when going right and noted inability to finish touch shots in the paint. To be a threat in lineups that feature more prominent creators (which is particularly applicable on the open market), he has to knock down shots off the catch.
Perhaps the eye-popping improvement he made in this area last season was, frankly, too extreme to trust, which in turn made it easy to revert back to previous skepticism at the first sign of struggle. But even if he regresses some from last season, there is leeway built into his new numbers. He's also going to have the ball more this season with the departure of Jrue Holiday. He has great chemistry with Zion Williamson.
And now, on top of all these rookie extensions, teams that were planning for a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Anthony Davis or Paul George have seen all of those guys re-up with their current teams. Bam Adebayo extended in Miami. Kawhi Leonard will likely stay with the Clippers now that George has committed. Who's going to be left for teams to pay?
Lonzo. That's who. Whether it comes from the Pelicans or some other teams, after watching Fultz get $50 million, and Luke Kennard get $64 million, and Derrick White get $73 million, Ball is betting that his patience will result in a similar, if not better, payday with one more season of validation. He's betting on himself. And he's smart to do so.
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December 23, 2020 at 05:17AM
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Lonzo Ball was smart to pass on low-ball extension, will end up getting hefty raise in barren 2021 market - CBS Sports
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