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It's the sexism, stupid. - Politico

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RULING THE WEEK

There’s a puzzle in U.S. politics: If women win elections at the same rates as men, which they do, then why are there still so few women in political office?

In grappling with this oddity, the political science field in recent years has moved away from blaming voter bias and instead focused on why women don’t run as often as men in the first place. The thinking goes: Voters can't be biased, because women win at the same rates as men. The problem instead is that women are more “election-averse” — they either don’t care as much about politics or they underestimate their own qualifications, making them reluctant to enter a race. This reasoning has fueled a push to recruit more women to run for office — because, by this logic, if you just get more women to compete, they’ll win.

But Christopher Berry, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, thinks that this reasoning is flawed. He, along with co-authors Scott Ashworth and Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, built an election model, described in a new working paper, that shows you can only explain the current gender gap in U.S. politics if you consider election aversion as well as voter discrimination and stereotyping.

“There are fewer women in office [than men], and fewer women run for office. When they do run, they win just as often as men, and after they’re in office, they perform better. And what our paper is showing is you can’t explain those facts unless there’s voter bias,” says Berry.

So why the low numbers of women? The authors posit that the anticipation of real voter bias leads only the most qualified women to run in the first place. “Women know that they’re going to face these hurdles [of sexism],” says Berry. “So they’re only going to run if they think they have a reasonable chance of overcoming them, which means they’re going to be more qualified. So you have this self-selected group of women who are from a higher end of the distribution than the men who run.”

In a previous paper, he called this the “Jackie (and Jill) Robinson Effect,” comparing it to racism in major league baseball: “If you look at the first African American players that integrated a sport … they had to be better, because there was so much bias against them,” he says. “We’re making the same argument for women. … They had to be better in order to get elected in the first place.”

What does that mean for fixing the gender gap in U.S. politics? Other countries have enacted policies like gender quotas to even the playing field. But assuming quotas are unlikely to be adopted in the U.S. anytime soon, Berry says we have to wait: “It seems like what we’re really counting on is the slow, steady progress in the erosion of voter bias over time,” he says. Another way this could improve: voter bias pushing in the opposite direction. “If there are voters who actually disproportionality want to elect women,” says Berry, “that could begin to offset the bias on the other side.”

Happy Friday. For the first time in history, women will hold more than 30 percent of seats in state legislatures in 2021, with a record number of at least 2,236 seats, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.

Thanks to Maya Parthasarathy for filling in last week. Thanks to Daniel Lippman for sending us news. Send your holiday cheer to [email protected].

TRANSITION 2020 -- “Biden's Cabinet picks give Kamala an edge in 2024,” by Christopher Cadelago and Natasha Korecki: “Joe Biden hasn’t picked any of the nearly two dozen Democrats who ran against him to serve in his administration — and that bodes quite well for the former rival he did elevate as his No. 2, Kamala Harris.

“Biden’s decision to forgo a Cabinet of ambitious pols in favor of a group heavy on seasoned loyalists and technocrats contrasts with Donald Trump and Barack Obama’s appointment of next-generation officials to top posts. And it could deny a springboard to potential Harris competitors in 2024 if Biden decides to retire after one term rather than running for reelection in his 80s.” POLITICO

-- “Biden’s Pentagon pick frustrates women who sought a different history-maker,” by Lara Seligman and Nahal Toosi: “As President Barack Obama’s Pentagon policy chief, Michèle Flournoy nurtured a new generation of women in national security who have long pushed for her appointment as the first female Defense secretary.

Now that President-elect Joe Biden has passed over Flournoy, those same women are outraged over what they say is a missed opportunity to make history.

“In phone calls, tweets and texts, Flournoy supporters, whose ranks include plenty of men, argue that Biden’s decision to instead choose retired Gen. Lloyd Austin for the top Pentagon job has sent a terrible message to women trying to break into the boys’ clubs that have long controlled U.S. military leadership. Some wonder whether Flournoy’s experience and willingness to speak her mind actually worked against her, while Austin is seen as more likely to simply carry out orders.” POLITICO

-- “Biden’s pick for CDC director hailed for gender equity commitment,” by Shefali Luthra: “Rochelle Walensky, who will head the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under President-elect Joe Biden, has emerged over the past year as one of the nation’s foremost experts on managing the pandemic. Her selection, announced Monday, could signal a sharper government focus on gender inequities and vulnerable populations when it comes to rolling out COVID-19 vaccines. Unlike other senior level advisers, the CDC director does not require Senate confirmation. Walensky will be the third woman to run the CDC.

“‘Dr. Walensky is a fantastic appointment for head of the CDC for many reasons, not the least of which is her commitment to health equity,’ said Ruth Faden, a bioethicist at Johns Hopkins University who focuses on immunizations for pregnant people. ‘We can expect a CDC under Dr. Walensky’s direction to be much more attuned to including the interests of women, including pregnant and lactating people, in all aspects of CDC operation.’” The 19th

MORE TRANSITION NEWS -- “Biden taps Susan Rice for top White House domestic policy job,” via POLITICO ... “Biden to name Hill staffer Katherine Tai for top trade job,” via POLITICO ... “Biden to tap Marcia Fudge to lead housing agency,” via POLITICO ... “Newsom faces new pressure to name Black woman to Harris seat,” via POLITICO ...

-- “Transgender Americans see new health care champion in Biden’s HHS pick,” via The 19th ... “What Women Can Expect from a Biden Presidency: On Global Women’s Rights,” via Ms. Magazine ... “Hispanic caucus backs former teacher’s union chief for Education secretary,” via POLITICO

NEW RANKING -- This week, Forbes published its list of the world’s 100 most powerful women. Can you guess the top 10?

-- Here they are, starting from No. 1: Angela Merkel, German chancellor; Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank; Kamala Harris, U.S. vice-president elect; Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission; Melinda Gates, philanthropist; Mary Barra, CEO of General Motors; Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House; Ana Patricia Botín, executive chairman, Santander; Abigail Johnson, CEO of Fidelity; Gail Boudreaux, president and CEO of Anthem. … And Stacey Abrams just made the list at No. 100. See the full ranking

#METOO LATEST -- “‘Under the rug:’ Sexual misconduct shakes FBI's senior ranks,” by Jim Mustian: “An assistant FBI director retired after he was accused of drunkenly groping a female subordinate in a stairwell. Another senior FBI official left after he was found to have sexually harassed eight employees. Yet another high-ranking FBI agent retired after he was accused of blackmailing a young employee into sexual encounters. An Associated Press investigation has identified at least six sexual misconduct allegations involving senior FBI officials over the past five years, including two new claims brought this week by women who say they were sexually assaulted by ranking agents.

“Each of the accused FBI officials appears to have avoided discipline, the AP found, and several were quietly transferred or retired, keeping their full pensions and benefits even when probes substantiated the sexual misconduct claims against them. Beyond that, federal law enforcement officials are afforded anonymity even after the disciplinary process runs its course, allowing them to land on their feet in the private sector or even remain in law enforcement. ...

“The recurring sexual misconduct has drawn the attention of Congress and advocacy groups, which have called for whistleblower protections for rank-and-file FBI employees and for an outside entity to review the bureau’s disciplinary cases. ‘They need a #MeToo moment,’ said U.S. Rep. Jackie Speier, a California Democrat who has been critical of the treatment of women in the male-dominated FBI.” AP

WHAT’S YOUR PINK TAX? -- Last month, Scotland became the first country in the world to make period products free. The move inspired Dominika Miszewska, a medical student at the University of Warsaw in Poland, to figure out how much women spend on personal sanitary products over their lifetimes. She and her friend Julia Żuławińska, a biophysics student, created the Period Products Cost Calculator for The Omni Calculator Project — a tool that lets you calculate just how much you’ll spend on period products in any given period of time.

WHAT RULERS ARE READING

PERSPECTIVE -- “Santa Is a Mom,” by Sarah Archer: “Back in October, we heard First Lady Melania Trump pose what turns out to be a profound question: ‘Who gives a fuck about Christmas stuff and decorations?’ she asked in a taped conversation with former senior adviser to the First Lady and author of the memoir ‘Melania and Me,’ Stephanie Winston Wolkoff. The question is an especially complicated one this year, as Americans enter a holiday season that will unfold at the peak of the worst pandemic in a century. But the moment in Wolkoff’s tape that really captures the gendered complexity of holiday merrymaking is what the First Lady says next: ‘But I need to do it, right?’ She does. And this year, like the three years before this one, she did.

“First Ladies have been tasked with project-managing the holiday decoration of the White House for generations. This custom is just a grander, highly visible version of the dynamic that governs two-parent households headed by heterosexual couples all over America. ‘What Americans expect from their First Ladies with respect to Christmas — the decorating, but also the general cheer and spirit — they also expect from their “ordinary moms” (if there is such a thing!),’ says scholar Juliana Rowen Barton, the associate curator for a project called Designing Motherhood. ‘We look to them, as we do with all other aspects of a First Lady’s public persona, for indicators of how things are and for signals of stability and normalcy, even or perhaps more so in such unprecedented times.’ The open secret about Santa Claus isn’t that he doesn’t exist; it’s that he’s a mom.

“Women have long been charged with the labor — emotional, physical, culinary, and aesthetic — of the interior aspects of the holidays, while men are more apt to take on outdoor projects (when there’s outdoor space available to decorate). Men are more likely to put up exterior lights and animatronic reindeer; women spearhead the cleaning and preparation for family visits, decoration and craft projects, cooking, gift-wrapping, and the intangible but crucial task of managing the mood and making sure that everyone is having a good time.” The Cut

LOST DURING COVID -- “‘It feels like a lost year’: the women who fear 2020 has stolen their chance of motherhood,” by Sirin Kale: “Saturday mornings are the worst. Claudia, a teacher, wakes up alone in bed in her London flatshare. The weekend stretches out before her, an interminable expanse to be filled as best she can — with walks, and TV, and more walks. Sometimes, she finds it hard to summon the motivation to get out of bed. ‘It sounds dramatic,’ Claudia says, ‘but I’ll lie there, thinking: “What’s the point of getting up?”’

“She goes over the arithmetic that has tortured her all year long. She will be 34 next month, single, no closer to finding a partner to have kids with. Even if she did meet someone next year, say, would they be ready to start conceiving within a year? Probably not. That could mean she will be 36 before she even starts trying — if she meets someone next year. And there’s the rub — because the Covid-19 restrictions have made dating nearly impossible. ‘My friends are either pregnant or looking after small children,’ Claudia says, ‘and I struggle to even get men to talk to me online. It feels hopeless.’

“Claudia is one of the many women across the UK who fear that the coronavirus has put paid to their plans to have children, possibly for good. As Covid swept the country in March, IVF clinics hastily closed; most would not reopen until May. And women who had planned to travel abroad for fertility treatment were unable to leave the UK, due to the travel restrictions. Once-solid relationships collapsed under the stress of a global pandemic, leaving women in their late 30s who want children searching for new partners. And women who were in a secure financial situation before the pandemic suddenly found themselves out of work — meaning that they couldn’t afford to become mothers, in the short term at least.” The Guardian

AROUND THE WORLD -- “Climate leaders protest against lack of women at high levels in UN summit,” via Financial Times ... “Councilor who accused Japanese mayor of sexual assault voted out after locals said she ‘degraded’ women,” via CNN ... “‘It’s not a grave we must fit in’: the Kashmir women fighting for marital rights,” via The Guardian

ON THE HILL -- “Dianne Feinstein’s Missteps Raise a Painful Age Question Among Senate Democrats,” by Jane Mayer: “In a hearing on November 17th, Dianne Feinstein, the senior Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, who, at eighty-seven, is the oldest member of the Senate, grilled a witness. Reading from a sheaf of prepared papers, she asked Jack Dorsey, the C.E.O. of Twitter, whether his company was doing enough to stem the spread of disinformation. Elaborating, she read in full a tweet that President Trump had disseminated on November 7th, falsely claiming to have won the Presidential election. She then asked Dorsey if Twitter’s labelling of the tweet as disputed had adequately alerted readers that it was a bald lie.

“It was a good question. Feinstein seemed sharp and focussed. For decades, she has been the epitome of a female trailblazer in Washington, always hyper-prepared. But this time, after Dorsey responded, Feinstein asked him the same question again, reading it word for word, along with the Trump tweet. Her inflection was eerily identical. Feinstein looked and sounded just as authoritative, seemingly registering no awareness that she was repeating herself verbatim. Dorsey graciously answered the question all over again.

“Social media was less polite. A conservative Web site soon posted a clip of the humiliating moment on YouTube, under the headline ‘Senator Feinstein just asked the same question twice and didn’t realize she did it,’ adding an emoji of someone covering his face with his hand in shame, along with bright red type proclaiming ‘Time to Retire!!’ Six days later, under growing pressure from progressive groups who were already outraged by her faltering management of Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court confirmation hearing, Feinstein released a statement announcing that she would step down from the Democrats’ senior position, while continuing as a non-ranking member of the committee. Feinstein’s office declined to comment for this article.” The New Yorker

-- “AOC, Rice face off for powerful committee post,” via POLITICO ... “Incoming GOP congresswoman dismisses QAnon’s grip on the right,” via POLITICO ... “Bernie co-chair Nina Turner eyes Fudge seat,” via POLITICO

WAITRESSING DURING COVID -- “Tips are ‘way down’ in restaurants. Sexual harassment is up, a new study shows,” by Caroline Kitchener: “Katherine Lazar knows how to deal with men who flirt: She’s been a waitress for 12 years. ... Lazar never used to worry about these men. If they ever went too far — asking for her number, suggesting they meet up after her shift — she’d shut them down. That has all changed in the pandemic. Last year, Lazar could easily make $150 a day in tips. Now that the cafe is only open on weekends for takeout, she said, she’s lucky if she makes $30. Her new job at a women’s shelter, making $11 an hour, isn’t enough to make up the difference, said Lazar, who lives in public housing with her two young children. She’s been relying on large tips from men who are ‘regulars,’ including one who always leaves $20. When he recently asked to see her outside of work, she said, she didn’t feel like she had a choice. ‘I don’t want to do it, but I do because that’s 20 dollars every day.’

“The coronavirus has exacerbated the power imbalance between tipped servers and their customers, according to a new study by the nonprofit One Fair Wage, which surveyed 1,675 food service workers in New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Washington, D.C. While tipped workers — 70 percent of whom are women — were always somewhat beholden to their customers, the coronavirus economy has given the customer far more power, leaving servers vulnerable to sexual harassment and health risks, as many customers refuse to respect the restrictions necessary to keep servers safe. Struggling to get by, servers are more reliant on tips than they used to be.” The Lily

NEW PODCASTS -- “Appearances Is Unlike Any Podcast You’ve Ever Heard,” via Vulture ... “In Her Shoes: Tamron Hall,” via The Cut

IN HEALTH -- “Mammogram guidelines can put women of color at risk. These women ‘thank God’ they advocated for themselves,” by Rachel Sherman: “In 2018, Zahra Khan, then in her early 40s, dreamed there was something in her left breast. When she woke, she examined her left side for lumps but felt nothing. She had the same dream twice more. The final dream, she said, prompted her to go to her primary care physician. But Khan’s doctor didn’t detect anything abnormal, either. The doctor assured Khan she was perfectly healthy, and that because she had a normal mammogram the year before, she didn’t need another until she turned 50. Khan persisted and asked for one anyway. The mammogram identified a precancerous cell on the left side of her left breast.

“‘Had it truly not been for that instinct, driven by that dream — because I don’t normally dream about my body — it wouldn’t have been caught,’ said Khan, a New Jersey-based accountant. Luckily, she also had health insurance, which covered the cost of her mammogram.

“Current breast-imaging guidelines in the United States — which recommend a mammogram for women between 50 and 74 every two years — come from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. But these guidelines can leave women of color especially at risk, including women of South Asian descent like Khan. A 2018 Harvard study found that breast cancer diagnoses in the 40 to 49 age range are more common for Black, Hispanic, Ashkenazi Jewish and Asian women. The study posits that national mammography guidelines may have been created using data from largely White populations, which could explain the under-screening of younger women of color.

“These guidelines can have life-or-death consequences. According to the American College of Radiology, in the United States, 50 percent of breast cancers that end in death are diagnosed in women before the age of 50. Subsequently, women like Khan are left to weigh whether to pay out of pocket for their mammograms, if their insurance companies won’t cover them, or whether to gamble against time.” The Lily

HISTORIC FIRST -- “One of these NASA astronauts will be the first woman on the moon,” via Space.com

BOOK CLUB -- “The Books Briefing: Reimagining Womanhood,” via The Atlantic ... “Dolly Parton and the Women Who Love Her,” via NYT

IN CULTURE -- “How a Queer Icon Made the Holiday Film of the Year,” by Shirley Li: “Happiest Season provides a welcome dose of warmth for audiences desperate for respite this year. The film is packed with pandemic-free, Christmastime touchstones. There’s a walking tour of holiday decorations, a scene set at an ice-skating rink, and even a white-elephant gift exchange. But the film isn’t just a holiday rom-com; it’s the first major entry in the genre to feature a same-sex couple. Abby (played by Kristen Stewart) and Harper (Mackenzie Davis) must keep their relationship a secret from Harper’s conservative family over the holidays. In that sense, [Clea] DuVall, with her co-writer, Mary Holland, have made the yuletide truly gay.” The Atlantic

-- “Mariah Carey Might Be As Close to Pop Perfection As Pop Will Ever Allow,” via Vulture“How Mira Nair Made Her Own ‘Suitable Boy,’” via The New Yorker

VIDEO -- How Democrats and Republicans think they're going to pull off a Georgia win

WOMEN RULERS

TRANSITIONS -- Rashida Jones will be the next president of MSNBC, making her the first Black woman to lead a major cable news network. … Stephanie Schriock, who has run EMILY’s List since 2010, is stepping down as president. … Monica Richardson will be the first Black executive editor in the Miami Herald’s history … Terri Rupar will be political editor at The 19th. She is currently a project editor at WaPo.

WISDOM OF THE WEEK -- Katie Schubert, president & CEO of the Society for Women’s Health Research and Women in Government Relations 2020 Excellence in Advocacy Advocate of the Year Awardee: “It’s so important to be open to feedback and not to take it personally. Self-awareness and understanding not just your own personality but those around you is critical to success — especially in the field of government relations. Feedback is an opportunity for growth and learning. This shift in perspective from ‘this person just doesn’t understand what I do,’ to personal reflection can make all the difference in building your career, strengthening relationships, and moving your issue forward.” Connect with Katie here.

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